Since 1986 under the Museveni government Uganda has witnessed steady economic transformation and growth. However, a critical question is if this has resulted into a sufficiently broad and geographically balanced middle class? Unlike her East African neighbours—particularly Kenya and Tanzania—Uganda has endured a protracted history of conflict since indipendence that repeatedly derailed its development. But as development economist Paul Collier has shown in his research on conflict-affected regions, there is a connection to the presence or lack of a bouyant middle class. People who lack economic opportunities, see little hope of improving their circumstances, and have limited confidence in public institutions and ultimately become more susceptible to recruitment into armed movements, political violence, and insurgencies. With a growing middle class, that risk is reduced.
A good example is Uganda’s neighbour, the Democratic Republic of Congo. The lack of a strong independent business and professional class, and institutions capable of protecting citizens and their economic interests, has left her derailed with unending civil conflicts- including an apparent inability to timely arrest economically devastating pestilences like Ebola. According to the 2024 household survey, 69% of the Congolese population lives below the national poverty line.
On the contrary, Kenya’s experience after the 2007–2008 post-election violence offers a useful comparison. Although the country experienced serious violence, it avoided full-scale civil war. The middle class played a significant role in that outcome. Business and civic leaders from all sectors initiated discreet negotiations between representatives of contesting Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga camps. Those talks culminated in the National Accord of 28 February 2008, which established a power-sharing government.
For Uganda, sustained development rests on stability. When the middle class expands, it creates a larger and more influential group of citizens who have a vested interest in economic and political stability. But with a weak middle class then few have concrete stake in the nation’s future.
The latest World Bank classification assigns Uganda as a low income nation, meaning it has not converted her progress into a sufficiently broad, financially secure and geographically balanced middle class. More so, those that have reaped from these 40- year gains seem to be increasingly inward looking other than intent on creating conditions for the class to expand. And, if current economic conditions persist affecting the expansion of this class, the risk that economic grievances could escalate into violence will only grow- and ultimately wipe out even the little this class has reaped!
- Assoc Prof Martin M. Lwanga